The Central Intelligence Agency sent a report to Congress in November notingthat many terrorist groups and non-state actors around the world are interestedin using chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear weapons in the future.
An unified version of the report, posted on the CIA's Web site November23, says that any attacks that might occur in the future would likely be"small-scale, incorporating improvised delivery means and easily producedor obtained chemicals, toxins, or radiological substances."
The report, which covers the six-month period between July and December 2003,says terrorists are still more likely to turn to bombings and shootings toaccomplish their goals. But it also cites several groups of mujahidin associatedwith al-Qaida who have planned, but not carried out, attacks in Europe usingeasily produced chemicals. Simple chemical agents or toxins "could causehundreds of casualties and widespread panic if used in multiple simultaneousattacks," according to the analysis.
The report, "Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of MassDestruction (WMD) and Advanced Conventional Munitions," says that theincreasing availability of nuclear, biological, chemical, and ballistic missiletechnologies make it ever more difficult to stem the proliferation of WMD andthe means to deliver them.
"Nuclear fuel-cycle and weapons-related technologies have spread to thepoint that, from a technical view, additional states may be able to producesufficient fissile material and to develop the capability to weaponize it,"the report states.
As developing nations broaden their chemical industrial base and producepesticides, for example, they may than have at least a "latent chemicalwarfare capability," according to this analysis.
The report examines acquisition patterns for Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Koreaand Syria.
During the reporting period, Iran continued to seek foreign materials,training, equipment and know-how from countries such as Russia, China, NorthKorea and unidentified European nations. The report also cites the InternationalAtomic Energy Agency's finding that Iran failed to report the import andchemical conversion of uranium compounds, the separation of plutonium fromirradiated uranium targets, the enrichment of uranium using centrifuges andlasers, or to provide design information for its numerous fuel cycle facilities.
The CIA said it could draw no comprehensive or final conclusions from ongoinganalysis about Iraq's pre-war WMD program.
The report discusses Libya's progress in the strategic areas of nuclear,chemical, biological and ballistic missiles. In particular, it notes Libya'sintention to eliminate its nuclear and chemical weapons programs.
Turning to Pyongyang, the report states: "we continue to monitor andassess North Korea's nuclear weapons efforts amidst diplomatic efforts toarrange a second round of Six Party Talks."
The CIA's assessment of Syria includes the observation that Damascuscontinues to seek chemical weapons-related technology from foreign sources.
The report also examined key supplier nations including Russia, North Koreaand China.
Russia is cited for continued lax enforcement of export controls during thereporting period and, during the second half of 2003, the report says NorthKorea continued to export significant ballistic missile-related equipment,components, materials and technical expertise to the Middle East, South Asia,and North Africa.
The report also points to U.S-imposed sanctions against several Chineseentities in 2003, including the China North Industries Corporation (NORINCO) andthe China Precision Machinery Import/Export Corporation.
The full text of the unified summary of the report may viewed on theInternet at http://www.cia.gov/cia/reports/721_reports/july_dec2003.htm -chemical